Now the Japanese INDC is on UNFCCC’s website.

• 20150717_Japan’s INDC.pdf

Not much has changed since it was proposed for public commenting.  Hence the assessment below still stands.

• 26% reduction below 2013 by 2030 (1042 MtCO2eq).  **Here all years are Japanese fiscal year (April to March).
• For the base year, 2013 will be used mainly but 2005 will also be included.  For 2005 base year, the target becomes 25.4% below 2005 by 2030.
• The “GHGs” cover 6 Kyoto greenhouse gases and NF3.
• The target does include LULUCF (forest management, agricultural soil sinks etc).  It contribute to 2.6% reduction or 37 Mt-CO2eq reduction. They say they will take the same approach in Kyoto to account it, which means (in Japan’s case) gross-net approach.
• It is vague on whether it includes its bilateral offsetting scheme (“Joint Crediting Mechanism”) or not.  The INDC says JCM is not included as part of the basis for calculating the 26% reduction target but the government will “appropriately account” emission reduction acquired by Japan through the mechanism.  The INDC also states that accumulative 50-100 Mt-CO2eq is expected from JCM but it was clarified during the governmental committee meeting that the number is just an estimate, not a commitment.

• Electricity in 2030
  • RE: 22-24%
  • Nuclear: 20-22%
  • Coal: 26%
  • LNG: 27%
  • Oil: 3%
  • Of RE:
    • PV: 7%
    • Wind: 1.7%
    • Geothermal: 1.0-1.1%
    • Hydro: 8.8-9.2%
    • Biomass: 3.7-4.6%
• Primary Energy Supply including electricity, heat and fuels
  • RE: 13-14%
  • Nuclear: 10-11%
  • Natural gas: 18%
  • Coal: 25%
  • Oil: 30% + LPG 3%
• Energy consumption / Energy Efficiency
  • Electricity demand: 966.6TWh (2013) ==> 980.8TWh (2030)
    •  17% reduction from baseline scenario.
  • Finally Energy Consumption: 361 million kl Crude Oil Equivalent (2013) ==> 326 million kl COE (2030)
    • It is explained that this mean 35% improvement of efficiency between 2012 and 2030.
  • Primary Energy Supply will be 489 million kl COE.

• Low ambition in general:  The above target is equal to 18% reduction below 1990 by 2030, which is not enough.  CAN-Japan has been calling for 40-50% below 1990 by 2030.
• The base year disguise: the reason why 2013 was chosen as a base year is to make the target look better compared to EU and US.  It looks better than when it is compared with 2005 as a base year.
• Not consistent with its long-term target: Japan has a long-term target adopted by the Cabinet in 2012.  It aims at 80% reduction by 2050 (without specifying a base year). Assuming 2005 as a base year, the liner reduction from the current 2020 target (3.8% below 2005) to 2050 indicates that the target should be 29% reduction at the point of 2030.
• Low ambition in RE: renewable targets are extremely low, especially for wind and PV. They are even lower than what respective industry groups are aiming at.
• Uncontrolled coal: 26% in electricity generation in 2030 basically means Japan will keep the share of coal as it is now.
• Unrealistic nuclear: 20-22% nuclear actually means either extending operation period of nuclear power plants from the current 40 years to 60 years or building new ones.  If you assume only 40-year lifetime for nuclear power plants, many of the existing nuclear power plants will be phased out eventually and it should be less than 15% by 2030.
• Vague explanation for fairness and ambition:  the explanation around fairness and ambition is vague and it largely relies on high marginal abatement costs, transparency of sectoral breakdowns, efficiency of industry sectors.
• Too much focus on electricity: the discussion was centered around electricity mix too much and there was not much of discussion on heat/fuels.
• Other areas (adaptation and finance) are not addressed at all.